Arkansas vs. ECU, 2009 Liberty Bowl, Prediction Pick.
Posted on | December 19, 2009 | 6 Comments
Arkansas vs. ECU, 2009 Liberty Bowl, Prediction Pick.
This one could have been fun. Arkansas versus Houston would have been a game that would have rivaled Fresno State-Illinois in terms of pure shooutout power. But they got knocked out of the conference championship by a lucky team. And the Keenum-Mallett shootout? It’s left only for the dreams of those of us who love passing.
What we have? A brewing blowout. I know it’s a one game scenario and things aren’t exactly break down like they’re supposed to on paper. But in all honesty? A team that throws like champions in the SEC going up against the 118th ranked pass defense in Division 1 that played the majority of its games in Conference USA isn’t exactly something that looks like a classic confrontation. Point for blowout.
Counterpoint? ECU quarterback Patrick Pickney will get time to throw. He’s been sacked 9 times this year. He’s not exactly the most electrifying quarterback, but he’s a dual threat. And as such, with the way Arkansas can get thrown on? They should be able to move the ball.
However? They do tend to get bogged down in the red zone. You have a pie chart? Half of it will be touchdowns. 1/3 of it will be field goals. And the remaining sixth? Squadush. With a team that can score like Arkansas, you need to bring touchdowns to stay in the game.
On the other hand? ECU is a very opportunistic defense. +19 in turnovers. It got them the conference championship. In a one-game scenario? It can get you the win.
But it’s a better stat if your opponent doesn’t take care of the ball. Arkansas takes care of the ball. And being +14 while facing the SEC is quite impressive.
Okay. So will it be a blowout? Yes. I don’t think the final is going to be a real indicator of what this game really turned out to be. I see it as Arkansas 49, East Carolina 27. Arkansas will be up by at least 30 for a while in this game as well.
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6 Responses to “Arkansas vs. ECU, 2009 Liberty Bowl, Prediction Pick.”
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December 29th, 2009 @ 9:39 am
I can see how this match-up looks or feels of the blowout variety on paper but so have a LOT of games especially in the past 5 years or so and they have turned out the complete opposite. I know that the SEC is a superior conference to C-USA but i think that your opinion that this will be a blowout is not very realistic and makes for a perfect recipe for disappointment on your part. Houston was also supposed to blow-out ECU. For you to say some lucky team beat them is just plain wrong. Luck was Texas beating Nebraska. Arkansas will get their yards and put up points on the board just like Houston did but a blowout? I happen to think that the task for ECU is of the same variety as Houston as far as defending the Hogs high octane offense, very tough, but not impossible and i think that the game will be very competitive and enjoyable, no matter who wins. I have very much respect for Arkansas and especially for Coach Petrino’s coaching prowess, just like ECU’s players and coaching staff do, so if Arkansas goes into the game with the “we’re an SEC team and no CUSA team can match up with us” attitude it could be a humbling reminder that nowadays games are not gimmes. Having said all that as an avid ECU fan i think Arkansas will be among the toughest challenges of the season for us but i expect a competitive game with the team that makes the least amount of mistakes coming out on top.
December 31st, 2009 @ 3:26 am
John, I’ll tell you. When the team that’s 118th against the pass beats a top-ranked passing team? There was luck involved. Just how much can be debated, but they outperformed their play on paper.
I’m not so brave or stupid to say that there’s no way I can’t be wrong. ECU has a +19 turnover margin. They win that and they can win. But I just cannot see it.
December 31st, 2009 @ 5:32 pm
Andrew as an ECU student I must say that your prediction seems a bit off the mark my friend. To say that ECU would lose this game is not a bold statement but to propose that a mediocre SEC team like Arkansas would lead by 30 at times is almost ludicrous. ECU nearly beat Kentucky in last years Liberty Bowl, which is not to say that Kentucky and this Arkansas team are comparable but just to illustrate that East Carolina can definitely compete against teams of this caliber. Depending on the play of the ECU offense, which I myself believe will be just as red-zone stagnant as it normally is, this game could be extremely close. The defense will force turnovers and give the offense a short field to work with at times, it is just a matter of whether the offense can capitalize on its opportunities by not leaving points on the field in the form of field goals when they could score touchdowns. That being said, my main point is although it may seem hard to believe, ECU has a great shot to win this game regardless of what the numbers and odds are saying (example: C-USA Championship vs. Houston)
January 2nd, 2010 @ 4:19 am
John, I’ll level with you. Of all the things I said in my bowl prediction posts? That Arkansas will lead by 30 is probably my boldest belief. I just don’t see Arkansas having the same issues taking care of the ball that Houston did. Opportunistic defenses weren’t what gave Arkansas fits.
January 2nd, 2010 @ 9:28 pm
ECU is consistently underestimated team. I wonder if Houston could have had the kind of heartstopping game that ECU and Arkansas played. Our coach is a second generation coach who has the experiences to draw on that make him a person that the university and community can get behind. ECU remained competitive throughout the game.
January 2nd, 2010 @ 9:32 pm
I’ll admit it. ECU impressed the heck out of me. It may have been a losing cause, but they held Arkansas to 20. Holtz had a plan.