SEC Football month in review for September + Extra Points
Posted on | September 27, 2011 | No Comments
Through the month of September, college football has presented more questions than it has answered in the SEC. The SEC East is still up for grabs, as Georgia and South Carolina have been inconsistent, and Florida will remain an unknown until their back-to-back games versus Alabama and LSU. However, the Crimson Tide and Tigers have established themselves as the two best teams in the conference and the nation. As October approaches, let’s take a look back at September and our preseason predictions and attempt to forecast the rest of the 2011 college football season.
SEC East
The East has been consistently unpredictable this season, and it probably will continue down this path as the season unfolds. Before we break down each team thus far and their road ahead, let’s take a quick glance at our preseason rankings:
1. Georgia
2. South Carolina
3. Florida
4. Tennessee
5. Kentucky
6. Vanderbilt
Georgia (2-2, 1-1) – The Dawgs started off slowly, losing to Boise State and South Carolina, but they have vastly improved each week. After victories against Coastal Carolina and Ole Miss, Georgia faces a crucial (and winnable) three game stretch to open October. The Dawgs play Mississippi State in Athens, followed by two road games at Tennessee and Nashville. If Georgia can win all 3 before playing Florida at the end of the month, I still believe they will represent the East in Atlanta.
South Carolina (4-0, 2-0) – The Gamecocks definitely win the “Definitely Talented But Completely Unpredictable” award for September, as the Gamecocks have struggled on both sides of the football in wins over East Carolina (56-37), Georgia (45-42), Navy (24-21), and Vandy (21-3). The rushing attack from South Carolina has been great, led by Heisman candidate Marcus Lattimore, but the passing game has struggled under Stephen Garcia thus far. Defensively, the Gamecocks have been inconsistent, giving up 37 and 42 points in subsequent weeks. South Carolina has four very winnable games this month, with Auburn and Kentucky at home, and Mississippi State and Tennessee on the road. The Gamecocks will need all four victories before back-to-back games versus Arkansas and Florida in November. I still think Carolina will be upset this month and ultimately lose three in the conference, allowing Georgia to represent the East in Atlanta.
Florida (4-0, 2-0) – The Gators were a question mark entering this season, and three wins over bad teams and a home victory over a Justin Hunter-less Tennessee have given Florida a great start under Will Muschamp, but the tough part of the schedule is upcoming. Florida welcomes Alabama this week, and then they will travel to LSU the following week. I expect two losses there, and then the Gators travel to Auburn before taking a week off to prepare for Georgia. A 1-3 October is very probable for this young Florida football team, and a road trip to South Carolina looms in November. This Gators team is young and talented, but they are not quite ready to make the leap back into national prominence.
Tennessee (2-1, 0-1) – The Vols suffered a huge loss when receiver Justin Hunter tore his ACL in the Florida game, but they still have had a dominant passing game thus far. In October, Tennessee faces LSU, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and Buffalo. While this schedule faces three Top 10 teams, the good news is that only the Alabama game is on the road. Nevertheless, I would be surprised if the Vols won more 2 games in October. This team is still young and has promising days ahead, but the brutality of an SEC schedule will leave Tennessee fans looking forward to next year.
Kentucky (2-2, 0-1) – Thus far, this one has been the biggest glaring mistake in my preseason predictions. While I only had Kentucky at 5th in the East, these Wildcats are probably the worst team in the SEC (although Ole Miss is certainly challenging for this spot). The offense has been putrid, and Florida lit up the Wildcats for 48 this past weekend. LSU and South Carolina will abuse this team the next two weeks, as Kentucky will be facing these giants on the road. I would not be surprised if the Cats lost to Jacksonville State (JSU is not that good, UK is just that bad), and the only game Kentucky might be favored in is their matchup with Ole Miss in November. The Wildcats will finish last in the SEC East, and Joker Phillips may not return next season.
Vanderbilt (3-1, 1-1) – The Commodores have been a pleasant surprise this season, as they have already surpassed last year’s win total. Coach James Franklin has Vandy playing great defensively, but the Dores’ offense has been suspect. Vanderbilt opens October with a bye week before traveling to Tuscaloosa on October 8th. The Commodores have one winnable game next month (a home game against Army), but a bowl game is not out of the question.
SEC West
Alabama (4-0, 1-0)
LSU (4-0, 1-0)
Right now, you really cannot go wrong with either team. Both have been very strong defensively (slight edge to Alabama) and more than good enough offensively (slight edge to LSU). LSU has played a tougher schedule so far (road games versus Mississippi State and West Virginia, neutral site game versus Oregon), although Alabama manhandled Arkansas 38-14 last week (The Tide also defeated two overmatched opponents and a less than average Penn State). Alabama travels to Florida this week, and LSU welcomes that same Florida group the following week. Both teams have manageable schedules before they meet November 5th in Tuscaloosa what could possible be a quarterfinal matchup in the quest for a BCS national title.
Arkansas (3-1, 0-1) – The Razorbacks had a very easy first three weeks, but were snapped back to reality after a crushing defeat against Alabama. It wasn’t that the Hogs were that bad, it was just that Alabama was that good. However, all is not lost for Bobby Petrino’s group. They face future SEC opponent Texas A&M this week, then welcome Auburn before their bye week. They have back-to-back road games versus Ole Miss and Vanderbilt before a three game home stand against South Carolina, Tennessee, and Mississippi State. I think the Hogs will rebound nicely, and stand a very good chance of winning their next seven games before their season ending showdown with LSU in Baton Rouge.
Auburn (3-1, 1-0) – The Tigers defense has been atrocious, the offense has been inconsistent, and the schedule is about to be devastating. These three do not add up to a successful season. However, Auburn has the ability to turn their season into a pleasant one this month. Sure, the next four weeks are brutal (at South Carolina, at Arkansas, Florida, at LSU), but if Auburn can upset one of those teams (my bet is either South Carolina or Florida), and they take care of business against Ole Miss at the end of the month, the Tigers could possibly be 5-4 going into November. If that were the case, then their bye week going into Georgia could prove to be very beneficial as Auburn could possibly be 7-4 heading into the Iron Bowl riding a three game win streak. Conversely, Auburn could lose the next four, putting them at 3-5 heading into Ole Miss, which would probably lead to Kiehl Frazier becoming the starting quarterback and the Tigers trying to squeeze into a bowl game. Regardless, if the defense doesn’t improve, Auburn might be sitting home come bowl season.
Mississippi State (2-2, 0-2) – Mississippi State is off to a very slow start, dropping games to Auburn and LSU in consecutive weeks. The Bulldogs were almost upset by Louisiana Tech at home this past week, and this inconsistent start has Bulldog fans looking questionably toward the rest of the season. State travels to Georgia this week, and while they my drop that game, the follow that up with a road game to woeful UAB and a home game versus South Carolina. Following their bye week, the bulldogs face Kentucky and Tennessee-Martin before welcoming Alabama. I think the rest of the schedule sets up favorably for Mississippi State, and although they won’t compete for an SEC championship this season, consecutive bowl games is a very realistic goal for Dan Mullen and his Bulldogs if they can fix their battered offensive line.
Ole Miss (1-3, 0-2) – Things have gone from bad to worse in Oxford for the Rebels. Coming off a 4-8 season, Houston Nutt needed to bring back life to this program. Instead, the Rebels are on life support. After dropping the opener to BYU, Ole Miss was blown out by Vanderbilt and lost at home again to Georgia Saturday. Their lone win came against FCS Southern Illinois. This weekend, the Rebels travel to Fresno State, which will not be an easy game. Following their October 8th bye week, Ole Miss faces Alabama, Arkansas, and Auburn to round out the month. The best case scenario would be for a win in Fresno and an upset of one of their Western division foes before two winnable games against Kentucky and Louisiana Tech. However, what I think will happen is the Rebels will go 0 for October, drop to 1-7, and fire Houston Nutt. Then, and interim coach will step in and will have a chance to beat the Cats and LA Tech before facing LSU and Mississippi State. A 3-9 season is very probable for the Ole Miss Rebels.
Extra Points
The movie Moneyball opened last week, which depicts the Oakland A’s baseball team under general manager Billy Beane. After watching iconic SEC coaches for several years, each one has a unique personality that helps make that team successful. As a big fan of movies, especially comedies, I can’t help but to relate sports figures to characters in movies. Certain SEC coaches give me the same vibe as certain characters in movies did, and these were the three I thought were best.
1) Nick Saban, Alabama – White Goodman, Dodgeball – It’s safe to say that Saban is hated by every other SEC team, but just like White, he’s good at what he does, which makes people hate him even more. I can easily hear Saban saying something like “Here at Alabama, we’re better than you. And we know it.” Or “There’s no resisting when Nick Saban puts on his straw hat.”
2) Will Muschamp, Florida – Frank “the Tank” Ricard, Old School – We all know of Muschamp’s reputation as “Coach Boom”, but since he’s been at Florida, he’s remained relatively calm by his standards on the sidelines. Much like Frank the Tank in Old School, Frank stopped drinking until he went to a party, then he couldn’t control himself. If the Gators can upset Alabama Saturday, Coach Boom might make his return. Let’s just hope Muschamp doesn’t go streaking through the Quad (or the Swamp).
3) Les Miles, LSU – Ron Burgundy, Anchorman – I could’ve gone with either Burgundy or Brick Tamland for Miles (instead of “I love lamp” it would be “I love grass”). However, Burgundy was well known and was very successful, much like Miles. Miles has had several Ron Burgundy-teleprompter moments (last year against Tennessee and Florida), but somehow he always seems to come out on top. I can just see Miles trying to sell LSU to a recruit and his family: “Founded by the Germans in 1904, they named it Louisiana State, which of course in German means….”
For the record, I like all these coaches and I think they are among the best in the business (even Nick). If anyone can think of any more SEC coaches to compare to movie characters, feel free to let me know. College football is in full swing, and it’s a beautiful time of year. Stay classy college football fans.
Related posts:
- SEC football week 7 review!
- Week 9 SEC Football Picks, Predictions
- Week 10 SEC Football Picks, Predictions
- Week 12 Prediction Pick Briefs (featuring Ole Miss at LSU)
- SEC Football Week 4 Predictions 2008
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