Mississippi State at Arkansas, Prediction Pick, 2011
Posted on | November 18, 2011 | No Comments
Tyler is going to face a pretty surprising challenge.
Mississippi State at Arkansas, Prediction Pick, 2011
This is the sort of week that happens every November, there are 4 SEC teams playing FCS teams, and there’s no really interesting game in terms of betting lines. It’s the pre-show before the supercard. I mean this is the CBS game of the week, and the line is 12 points for Arkansas. But there is something to this game. A nugget of intrigue. A micro chess match within the macro.
Because Arkansas’s strength is their passing game. And while Dennis Johnson is rounding into a pretty solid form, (and Knile Davis is just a ghost to scare LSU) it’s Tyler Wilson throwing darts to Greg Childs, Joe Adams, and Jairus Wright where Arkansas’s money is made. But here’s the thing.
Mississippi State? Their defense is great against the pass.
Now I know what you’re saying, are they really great, or are they just great by the standards of the fact that you can just run them over and don’t need to throw. But the fact of the matter is that while the defense is 13th against the pass? Per attempt? They’re seventh.
So you aught to show some love for cornerbacks Corey Broomfield and Johnathan Banks, and safeties Charles Mitchell and Wade Bonner. They held off a game Louisiana Tech (and they did beat an SEC team last week), and made all the SEC quarterbacks lo0k perfectly mortal against the pass.
After all, being the first at limiting long passes is a skill that’s to be rewarded.
So Mississippi State’s mission is to keep the play in front of them, and let the offense make a mistake, and if they’re gonna die? They’re gonna die by a thousand papercuts. (Fun fact: Mississippi State has turned an opponents red zone trip into zero points every week since their game against LSU.)
And if Arkansas has 27 points? It’s another good performance by this underrated defense. Problem is?
The offense hasn’t come close to that margin against a real team going on two months now. Arkansas 27, Mississippi State 13.
Related posts:
- Mississippi State vs. LSU Prediction Pick 2011
- Sugar Bowl Prediction Pick: Ohio State vs. Arkansas, 2011
- Mississippi State vs. Arkansas; Prediction Pick 2010
- Auburn vs. Mississippi State, Prediction Pick 2011
- Mississippi State vs. Georgia Prediction Pick, 2011
Tags: Charles Mitchell > Corey Broomfield > Dennis Johnson > Greg Childs > Jairus Wright > Joe Adams > Johnathan Banks > Knile Davis > Prediction Picks > Rosin > Tyler Wilson > Wade Bonner
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